This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Regions worldwide may have already experienced around 90%–94% of the warming expected when the global average reaches 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, and 65%–76% of that expected at 2°C of warming. The findings, published in Nature Climate Change, suggest that regional warming in 2025 was statistically indistinguishable from the levels expected in a 1.5°C warmer world, underlining the immediate need for adaptation across all regions.
The Paris Agreement aims to hold the rise in global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. However, these global limits translate into different degrees of warming from one region to another. Estimating regional changes is particularly difficult in parts of Africa, South America and the polar regions, where historical temperature observations are sparse or absent.
Francis Zwiers and colleagues combined historical observations of air temperature close to the Earth's surface with simulations from multiple climate models. Across all 46 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regions spanning every continent, they estimated externally driven warming relative to 1850–1900 and compared it with regional temperatures expected at global warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C. By 2025, they found that these regions had experienced an estimated 90%–94% of the warming expected when the global average reaches 1.5°C of warming, and 65%–76% of that expected at 2°C warming.
This analysis indicates that human influence accounts for almost all of the regional warming. Greenhouse gases were the main driver of warming across all regions, while the cooling effects of aerosols and other human influences partly offset their effects. The greatest warming occurred in high northern latitudes, reaching 3.3°C above baseline in the Russian Arctic, followed by Northeast North America (2.6°C of warming) and Northwest North America (2.4°C of warming).
The smallest amounts of warming were observed in ocean-dominated areas, including Southwest South America, South South America, Southeast Asia and New Zealand. Estimates were particularly reliable for tropical regions, including much of Africa, because relatively small year-to-year temperature variations made the long-term warming signal easier to identify. The findings could help to support regional adaptation planning and assessments of climate-related loss and damage, including in places with limited historical observations.
The authors caution that the analysis relies on the available group of climate models, which is relatively small and may not represent the full range of possible climate responses. Tong Li et al., All IPCC AR6 regions are close to their 1.5°C- and 2°C-equivalent warming limits, Nature Climate Change (2026). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02790-y Journal information: Nature Climate Change BA art history, MA material culture.
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