SpaceX (SPCX) crushed Q2 estimates by 15%, delivering $7.8B in revenue on 92% year-over-year growth as its AI segment surged 247%. Management is targeting a $100B annualized revenue run rate by December, requiring monthly revenue to triple from today's $2.6B pace. Shares jumped 6.5% to $149 after SpaceX launched two Falcon 9 rockets 38 minutes apart, and Polymarket puts 89.5% odds on $150 this week.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today. The back-to-back Falcon 9 launches by SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) over the weekend set a fresh cadence record and showcase how quickly the launch infrastructure is scaling.
The longer-term thesis, however, hinges on Starship achieving full and rapid reusability with quick turnarounds. The stock priced its IPO at $135, opened at $150, and briefly touched roughly $226 before sliding to a low of $104.83. Since the 8-K filing at $115.09, shares have recovered materially.
Polymarket contracts assign an 89.5% probability SPCX touches $150 this week and a 46.5% probability it closes above that level by month end. Shares traded at $149.16 midday Monday, up 6.54% intraday from a prior close of $140, after the company launched two Falcon 9 rockets within 38 minutes, one carrying a GSAT payload and the other flying for the U.S. SpaceX posted $7.814 billion in Q2 2026 revenue, disclosed in the 8-K filed on August 4, 2026.
The figure topped the consensus estimate of $6.82 billion by 14.59% and represented 92% year-over-year growth from the prior-year quarter's $4.1 billion. The top line was carried by three engines pulling at different speeds. Connectivity generated $4.291 billion, up 66% year over year, with Starlink's subscriber base doubling to 12.0 million and Enterprise & Government revenue climbing 108%.
The AI segment delivered $2.561 billion, growing 247%, while Space contributed $962 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.54 billion, up 191% YoY, though the company still booked a $541 million net loss as capital expenditures hit $18.37 billion, with $15.83 billion funneled into AI compute infrastructure. Management is guiding to a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by December 2026, propelled by $6.7 billion in newly contracted cloud services revenue, over $6 billion in U.S. government Starshield contracts, and the pending $60 billion Cursor acquisition.
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