SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) closed at $160.95 on June 12, its first day as a public company, capping the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history. On Friday, three months later, the stock closed at $152.71 -- about 5% below where it started. Flat doesn't mean calm, though.
Shares closed as high as $211.39 in their third session, took a beating into early August (bottoming near $108), and have spent most of September climbing back. Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005.
But according to our analysts, we're only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue » The business, meanwhile, has been anything but stuck.
Second-quarter revenue rose 92% year over year. Why has one of the world's most valuable companies gone nowhere as a stock? I'd point to three things: a calendar of insider share unlocks, a first earnings report that revealed staggering spending, and a valuation that assumed years of success from the start.
SpaceX sold about 639 million shares in its IPO, but it has more than 13 billion outstanding. Nearly all the rest sat with insiders and early investors, barred from selling by lockup agreements -- and those restrictions lift on a schedule, not all at once. About 911 million shares became eligible to trade two trading days after the Aug. 4 earnings report, 319 million followed on Aug. 20, and 319 million more came earlier this month.
Shares rose the day the first batch came free and fell about 4% on the third. But the calendar is far from finished. Releases of about 328 million shares each are scheduled for Sept. 24, Oct. 9, and Oct. 24.
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