A tropical disturbance in the Atlantic has the potential to become Tropical Storm Dolly within days, although its formation and eventual path remain uncertain. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in a Wednesday update at 8 a.m. Eastern time that the area of low pressure, designated AL96, was located a few hundred miles southwest of Cabo Verde.
Its associated showers and thunderstorms remained disorganized. Forecasters gave the system a 60 percent chance of developing within both the next 48 hours and the next seven days, down from 70 percent in the NHC's 2 a.m. update on Wednesday. The earlier outlook had described the chances as "high," while the latest assessment placed them in the "medium" category.
The NHC said environmental conditions would be somewhat favorable over the next couple of days, allowing a tropical depression to potentially form as the disturbance moves west to west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. However, conditions are expected to become less favorable by the weekend, possibly ending its opportunity to develop. There were no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic as of Wednesday morning.
The Weather Channel reported on Wednesday that the disturbance could first become a tropical depression and then potentially strengthen into Tropical Storm Dolly within the next few days. According to the channel, the disturbance faces two possible broad scenarios. It could struggle against dry air and wind shear associated with El Niño while moving toward the west-northwest, reaching the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles around Sunday with increased showers.
Alternatively, if the system survives those obstacles and develops, it could turn northward over the Atlantic next week. "The wave does appear to be trying to organize this morning. However, we will need to see if the showers and thunderstorms can maintain themselves throughout the day," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek on Wednesday morning.
"Most of the waves that have come off Africa this year have only been able to maintain big bursts of showers and thunderstorms for short periods of time," he continued. "You need these thunderstorms to be continuous for long periods of time to get a tropical storm to form." DaSilva said the system was expected to approach the northern Lesser Antilles late this weekend or early next week and urged residents there to monitor it closely. "If the tropical wave strengthens quickly, it is likely that it will turn north and move out to sea," he said.
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