This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: A network of drifting buoys equipped with barometers can help improve weather forecasts of extreme Mediterranean storms by providing crucial atmospheric observations from areas of the sea where measurements are scarce. A new study published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society provides the first assessment of the impact of these observations during Storm Harry, which affected the Mediterranean region in January 2026.
The findings come from the Mediterranean Extreme Events Experiment (M3E), an international initiative co-coordinated by OGS (Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale) and CMCC. By combining targeted in situ observations with numerical modeling, M3E supports the deployment of drifting buoys in the Mediterranean basin to improve forecasts of extreme weather events and advance understanding of ocean–atmosphere interactions during storms. Storm Harry brought intense rainfall and rough seas to several Mediterranean countries between Jan. 18 and 21, 2026.
Over three days, rainfall exceeded 300 millimeters (11.8 inches) in 23 monitoring locations and 400 millimeters (15.7 inches) in eight of them. The highest total, 482.5 millimeters (19 inches), was recorded in eastern Sicily. The storm also had devastating consequences, with hundreds of migrants estimated to have died while attempting to cross the Mediterranean by sea.
On land, the storm triggered heavy landslides, including the major landslide in Niscemi, Sicily, destroying homes and forcing around 1,500 people to evacuate. Forecasts from the ECMWF successfully predicted the heavy rainfall in southern Italy approximately seven days ahead of the event. However, forecasting precipitation in North Africa proved more challenging, partly because of small, rapidly evolving low-pressure systems that are difficult to capture accurately.
"These systems highlight the importance of collecting observations directly at sea," says Emanuela Clementi, senior scientist at CMCC and co-author of the study. "The Ionian Sea and central Mediterranean have historically had limited coverage of in situ atmospheric measurements, despite being areas where intense storms and persistent cyclones can develop." M3E addresses this gap through drifting buoys that measure atmospheric pressure and sea surface temperature. The observations are transmitted in near real time and made available to forecasting systems, where they can be incorporated into numerical weather prediction models.
The study shows that atmospheric pressure observations from the M3E buoys had a beneficial impact on forecasts during Storm Harry. In particular, data from a buoy in the Ionian Sea contributed to improving the representation of atmospheric circulation as Storm Harry crossed the region. An additional experiment compared forecasts using the available Mediterranean drifting-buoy observations with forecasts in which these observations were withheld.
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