Northern Ireland's leaders have not absorbed the implications of a rapidly ageing society and are continuing to "plan for a population from a previous era" the Commissioner for Older People Siobhan Casey has warned. In a new report, Casey said: "The ageing population is here, whether we are ready for it or not." The report draws on official population projections which suggest that next year the number of people aged over 65 will overtake the number of children. Northern Ireland's population as a whole is projected to fall slightly over the next 25 years but the population aged over 65 is projected to increase by almost 45%.
Casey said that is a positive reflection of improvements in life expectancy but brings challenges which need "long-term planning and coordinated action". She said the healthcare system is already experiencing the impacts of an ageing society but there will also be implications for housing, public transport and workplaces. "An ageing population is not simply a health and social care issue.
It will affect almost every aspect of life," the report said. "The reality is that Northern Ireland has yet to develop the coordinated and long-term approach needed to prepare for the scale of demographic change that lies ahead." Ageing populations are an issue for governments across the world. A key consideration is the economic impact of what is known as the "dependency ratio".
It is a way of assessing how many children and retired people are dependent on the economic output of the working age population. In 2024, for every 1,000 people of working age in Northern Ireland there were 586 dependants. That is projected to rise to 614 per 1,000 in mid-2049.
That is an increase of about 5% but more significant is the shift in the composition of that dependency. For children, the ratio declines from 316 to 248, while for pensioners it rises from 269 to 366 per 1,000 - a near 36% jump in the ratio of pensioners to workers. If the ratio of workers to pensioners continues to compress, the tax base required to fund rising healthcare and pension costs becomes increasingly strained.
That is a challenge beyond Stormont's competence and will have to be tackled at a national government level. Casey suggests that the areas under Stormont control have so far been approached in a piecemeal way. "At some level, government officials and elected representatives acknowledge that our society is changing," she said.
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