This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: A new study underscores the extent to which digital policies cannot be separated from energy policies. The research evaluates the relationship between information communication technologies and carbon dioxide emissions and finds that the variables the researchers used as proxies for digitalization were associated with increased emissions.
The paper, "ICT and CO₂ Emissions in the G20: A Channel-Based Mediation Analysis," is published in the journal Sustainability. "Fundamentally, we wanted to determine whether digitalization has helped to lower carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions," says Eiman Aiyash, co-author of a paper on the work and a lecturer in economics in North Carolina State University's Poole College of Management. "Specifically, we looked at three proxies for digitalization—internet usage, fixed telephone subscriptions and mobile cellular subscriptions—and used a statistical tool called mediation analysis to examine the direct relationship between digitalization and CO₂ emissions, as well as indirect relationships operating through several economic and energy channels.
Our findings suggest digitalization has not lowered emissions; quite the opposite." For the study, the researchers drew on data covering G20 economies from 1990 through 2023. The G20, or Group of 20, consists of 19 countries and the European Union. Collectively, these economies account for the majority of the world's economic activity and CO₂ emissions.
The researchers collected data on CO₂ emissions as well as the three proxies for digitalization, while accounting for real GDP and population growth. The analysis also examined potential channels through which digitalization may be related to emissions, including trade, industrial activity, fossil fuel energy consumption, renewable energy consumption and electricity production from renewable sources. The researchers analyzed the data using panel regression and mediation analysis techniques.
Across the three proxies, greater digitalization was positively and significantly associated with CO₂ emissions, suggesting that the expansion of information communication technologies in G20 economies has, so far, been associated with greater environmental pressure rather than lower emissions. What's more, the researchers found that only a small share of the estimated relationship between digitalization and CO₂ emissions was due to indirect effects related to industry and trade channels. Roughly 96%–98% of the estimated relationship was a direct association with the three proxies of digitalization.
The researchers interpret this finding as consistent with the substantial energy requirements of digital infrastructure and the carbon intensity of the electricity systems that support it. "Our study shows that digitalization is not inherently green: in the G20, information communication technology expansion is associated with higher CO₂ emissions," says study co-author Ahmed Abou-Zaid, a professor of economics at Eastern Illinois University. "So digitalization's environmental benefits will depend on whether the energy systems powering the digital economy become cleaner and more efficient." "Our results suggest that governments should assess digital progress not only in terms of connectivity and technology adoption, but also in terms of its environmental sustainability," says Aiyash.
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