Europe’s summer of extreme heat caused an estimated 50,000 deaths in cities across the region — the highest number on record — and wiped roughly 0.17% from European Union gross domestic product from April through September, or close to €17 billion ($18.9 billion). Those findings, from two separate studies, reveal the extent of Europe’s vulnerability to rising temperatures in what’s likely to be one of the hottest years in modern history. The estimated death toll comes from a study released Friday, led by scientists at Imperial College London, which determined that almost two-thirds of the deaths linked to high summer temperatures would not have happened without climate change.
A recent study from Bloomberg Economics, meanwhile, measured the hit to Europe’s GDP at 2.5 times the average loss for the period over the previous decade. The overall mortality level, triggered by a series of record-breaking heat waves, was far higher than those in the next most deadly years. The figure compares to about 29,000 heat-related deaths in cities in 2022 and about 28,000 in 2003, according to the research, which is due to be published in Nature Health this week.
European countries experienced extreme temperatures throughout the summer. Heat waves began in May and continued into September, with temperature records broken by significant margins in many countries. Average temperatures in Western Europe were nearly 3 degrees Celsius higher than the summer average between 1991 and 2020, with some days as much as 12 C higher.
Across the continent, vital infrastructure suffered. Wildfires destroyed homes, hospitals overheated, transport broke down and cooling systems in fridges and air conditioners failed. French GDP was 0.2 percentage points smaller in the second quarter due to extreme heat, according to Ulrich Eberle, author of the Bloomberg Economics report.
Germany’s economy was 0.1% smaller over the same period, while Spain saw a 0.05% heat-related GDP dent. The study by Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine covered 854 cities in 30 countries across the EU, U.K., Switzerland and Norway, accounting for about 40% of the countries’ total population. The number of heat-related deaths linked to climate change has risen over time, the study found, as fossil-fuel emissions have pushed temperatures higher.
Climate change accounted for nearly two-thirds of this summer’s excess mortality toll, up from about 40% in 2003. Calculating heat deaths is challenging because people rarely die directly from heat exposure. Instead, high temperatures typically put extra stress on the body and exacerbate existing conditions, especially those affecting the heart or respiratory systems.
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