The third and fourth weeks of the NFL season are where the first signs of separation form on the road to the Super Bowl. Mutli-game leads and deficits exist in the standings for the first time, and some of them are shocking. The Packers, for one, are two games back of the NFC North lead and in sole possession of last place in the division.
The Rams have a stunning two-game gap of their own to close in the NFC West, which comes as a complete surprise. It is still early enough that some of the results will prove themselves as outliers, and many teams will regress back toward their preseason expectations. Teams like the Broncos who stand in the middle of their divisions have enough runway to pull away from the pack or slip to the bottom of the pecking order.
There is far too much time left to draw season-defining conclusions. Everything that occurred in Weeks 1-3 matters in the season-long picture, though. Here is how it impacted the Super Bowl race.
The first month of the Broncos' schedule is brutal, yet they have a shot at leaving it at 3-1. The back-to-back wins they logged following the Week 1 egg they laid not only confirmed that they can beat Super Bowl contenders but also prevented them from falling into an early-season hole. That 31-10 loss to the Chiefs had the looks of a "this team was not nearly as good as everyone thought last year" kind of performance but now resembles more of a season-opening aberration.
Some of the concerns from the loss popped up again in the first half of last week's win over the Rams because of the unsightly 16-0 deficit, and perhaps this Broncos team will prove too inconsistent to compete for a Lombardi Trophy. But the upside is undeniable. The way they stymied Matthew Stafford in the second half of that game and Trevor Lawrence the week before was emblematic of how much of a nightmare this defense can be for opposing quarterbacks.
In order to win the Super Bowl, you need to make the playoffs first. And the Packers have a long, uphill climb ahead of them in order to get into the postseason bracket. If they remain in their current form, they could finish the year closer to the No. 1 pick than the No. 1 seed.
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