Two major atmospheric phenomena could influence U.S. weather in the coming weeks as a super El Niño continues to strengthen in the Pacific Ocean, while the Arctic polar vortex undergoes an unusually early collapse. The weather patterns could interact in the coming weeks. The super El Niño, which is characterized by warmer-than-average waters in the equatorial Pacific and weakened trade winds, has been strengthening for months.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasters anticipate it will reach peak strength this winter. Meanwhile, meteorologists are also drawing attention to the collapsing polar vortex, a large area of cold air and strong winds, over the Arctic. WFLA-TV chief meteorologist Jeff Berardelli said the collapse appears to be the earliest on record, occurring roughly a month earlier than previously observed, while the super El Niño has already become the strongest on record.
The two phenomena are not opposing weather patterns, but they can exert competing influences, with El Niño tending to favor broader warmth while a weakened polar vortex can produce periods of Arctic cold. Typically, polar vortex disruptions occur mid- to late winter, AccuWeather long-range meteorologist Alex DaSilva told Newsweek on Friday, and since this event is occurring so early, there won't be as much cold air to work with. "I don't think the cold outburst is going to be that significant compared to if this happened during the heart of winter," DaSilva said.
Still, below-average temperatures are expected across the northern Midwest and Northeast during the first week of November. It has been warm and dry across those regions in recent days. However, the colder temperatures will be short-lived.
Overall, El Niño's influence on U.S. weather will win out in November, DaSilva told Newsweek, with above-average temperatures expected during the rest of the month. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It occurs between every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine and 12 months, although a particularly strong El Niño can last longer.
It is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and weakened trade winds, which can influence weather around the globe in different ways. This year's El Niño has already broken records in terms of how far above average the ocean surface temperatures have risen. A stronger El Niño can be associated with stronger storms.
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