It’s the fourth consecutive independent poll giving him a lead since he became the Democratic nominee in July. Maine’s Senate race is expected to be one of the most competitive races of the midterms. The Pine Tree State has generally leaned toward Democrats in recent cycles, backing former Vice President Kamala Harris by 7 points in 2024, but Collins has won in the past because of her personal popularity and bipartisan image.
The new poll highlights the race's competitive nature as Democrats hope to unseat the longtime incumbent in a national environment shaped by President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating. Newsweek reached out to the Collins and Jackson campaigns for comment via email. Jackson held a 3-point lead over Collins in the new poll, 48 percent to 45 percent.
The narrow lead is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, so it’s pointing to a very tight race in the state. The poll surveyed 880 registered voters from August 31 to September 6, 2026. The majority (71 percent) of Jackson’s supporters described their vote as being “against Collins,” rather than “for Jackson,” but 74 percent of Collins’ supporters said their vote was “for” the incumbent senator, according to the poll.
Jackson’s favorability rating was underwater by 6 points in the poll, with 42 percent viewing him unfavorably and 36 percent viewing him favorably. Collins was 10 points underwater, with 51 percent viewing her unfavorably and 41 percent viewing her favorably. It found a significant gap in the Senate and gubernatorial race, where Democrat Hannah Pingree held a 13-point lead over Republican Bobby Charles, 52 percent to 39 percent.
It did not ask about independent candidate Rick Bennett. Collins has outrun other Republicans in Maine in the past. The CNN poll aligns with other recent surveys suggesting a close race.
An Abacus Data poll released earlier in September found that Jackson led Collins by 9 points, 52 percent to 43 percent among likely voters. But among all registered voters, Collins was up a single point, 46 percent to 45 percent, the poll found. The poll surveyed 500 registered voters and 327 likely voters in Maine from August 26 to 28, 2026.
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