Sweden faced political uncertainty Monday after an election thriller that saw the left-wing opposition hold on to a slim lead with votes still left to count. Sunday's election also served up a surprise setback for the far-right Sweden Democrats, who lost ground for the first time since entering parliament 16 years ago. The leader of the left-wing opposition, Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats, and outgoing conservative Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson each said they wanted to explore coalition options to secure power and form a new government, but both would have to make major concessions to obtain a majority.
While the left-wing held a slim lead, the bloc was expected to face thorny negotiations to form a government, with the talks expected to drag on for several weeks. Parliament can vote on a new prime minister on Sept. 29, at the earliest. After Sweden's 2022 national election, it took 37 days to form a government, much shorter than the 134 days it took to do so in 2018.
Political analyst Mats Knutson at public broadcaster SVT said both blocs were likely to end up in a "stalemate that paves the way for a long and troublesome process of forming a government, which could end in a snap election." "One or several parties may have to abandon their 'red lines,'" he said. With 95% of the votes counted on Monday, the four opposition parties held a three-seat majority in the 349-seat parliament over Prime Minister Kristersson's right-wing alliance, which includes the anti-immigration far right. But observers warned those results could still change, with some votes only due to be counted by Wednesday.
"The situation is really tight, and it's been more and more polarized in Sweden the last years," 48-year-old construction worker Mikko Duvaldt told the news agency on Monday. "It's going to be a tough situation for each side to form a government." If the left-wing majority is confirmed, Andersson, a staunch defender of Sweden's welfare state, will attempt to form a government with the three other parties on the left: the Greens, the left and the center. But the bloc is fractured by deep ideological differences.
The center has said it would refuse to support any government including the left, and the left has said it would not support any government of which it is not a member. Outgoing Prime Minister Kristersson is meanwhile expected to court the Center Party — which, until 2019, had been part of the right-wing bloc — to try to build a majority on his side. "I will therefore, even if tonight's result stands, examine whether there are any possibilities within this non-socialist parliamentary majority to find some workable government constellation," Kristersson told his supporters on election night.
Annika Freden, associate professor in political science at Lund University, said Kristersson could expect to get the cold shoulder from the center. "Kristersson reaching out to the center is expected, but the center is fundamentally opposed to entering into an alliance with the far-right, so nothing will come of it," she said. She told she thought the parties would do everything in their power to avoid a new vote.
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