This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Wealth redistribution policies currently under discussion in international forums could avert between 6.6 million and 29.5 million deaths by 2030, according to a study published in The Lancet and led by ISGlobal in collaboration with other leading economic and health research institutions. The findings suggest that a range of international tax measures could generate substantial resources for development and health programs at a time when many donor countries are reducing official development assistance (ODA).
The study analyzed data from 59 low-income and lower-middle-income countries between 2002 and 2021 and projected future scenarios through 2030. Researchers first estimated the relationship between ODA funding and mortality. They then used these estimates to model the potential health impacts of different wealth redistribution policies designed to offset the decline in ODA funding.
The analysis found that higher levels of development assistance were associated with a 24% reduction in overall mortality and a 33% reduction in mortality among children under five. The researchers then modeled a scenario in which current reductions in development assistance continue through 2030. Under this scenario, they projected approximately 7.6 million additional deaths, including 1.4 million among children under five.
This defunding scenario served as the baseline against which different wealth redistribution policies were evaluated. The researchers assessed 10 policies that have been proposed in recent high-level international agreements and policy discussions. These included taxes on ultra-high-net-worth individuals (billionaires), multinational corporations, financial transactions, carbon emissions, cryptocurrencies and interest earned on sovereign debt.
Each redistribution scenario was modeled on top of the projected aid reduction scenario, allowing the researchers to estimate the extent to which additional revenues could offset the health impacts of declining assistance. Across all scenarios, the policies generated sufficient resources to offset part—or, in most cases, all—of the projected negative health impacts associated with current aid reductions. Depending on the mechanism and level of taxation, these measures are estimated to prevent between 6.6 million and 29.5 million deaths by 2030.
Among the policies analyzed, a 3% tax on the wealth of billionaires was associated with up to 29.5 million deaths averted by 2030. A global minimum tax on large multinational corporations was associated with approximately 20 million deaths averted, while taxes on financial transactions were associated with around 24 million deaths averted. "We first estimated how the current reduction in humanitarian and development assistance could lead to millions of avoidable deaths in the world's most vulnerable countries," says Gonzalo Barreix, researcher at ISGlobal and first author of the study.
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