Latino voters in three competitive Texas House districts favor Democrats by 56 percent to 36 percent, according to a new Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision poll. That movement could affect control of Congress as closely divided battlegrounds can be decided by relatively small changes among major voting blocs. Republicans entered the 2026 cycle hoping President Donald Trump's improved showing with Latino voters in 2024 represented a lasting political realignment.
However, the new figures suggest that support was conditional, with economic frustration and opposition to the administration's immigration enforcement giving Democrats an opening. Democratic and Republican candidates in districts along the Mexico border, suburban Fort Worth and the Austin-San Antonio corridor face a substantially changed electoral landscape. Hart Research conducted the 2026 Latino Battleground survey for TelevisaUnivision from August 6 to 17 among 1,500 Latino registered voters in 17 competitive congressional districts.
The Texas sample comprised 300 interviews in the 23rd, 28th and 35th districts. The reported margin of sampling error for the full survey was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Among Latino respondents in the three Texas districts, the self-reported 2024 presidential vote was tied at 44 percent each for Trump and then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
When asked about the 2026 congressional ballot, however, 56 percent supported Democratic candidates and 36 percent backed Republicans. "Latino voters aren't locked into one party," Kate Coleman, a senior vice president at TelevisaUnivision, told Axios. "They're paying close attention and making decisions based on who shows up for them, and how they're showing up." The Texas sample covered three House contests.
In the 23rd Congressional District, Republican Brandon Herrera, Democrat Katy Padilla Stout and independent Ben Mendoza are running for an open seat. Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar hopes to hold the seat in the 28th District against challenges from Republican Tano Tijerina and Green Party candidate Marlon Duran. And in the 35th District, Democrat Johnny Garcia and Republican Carlos De La Cruz are vying to replace Democratic Representative Greg Casar.
Across the 17 competitive House districts surveyed, Democrats led Republicans by 58 percent to 35 percent among Latino registered voters on the generic congressional ballot. That 23-point margin was twice the 11-point advantage Harris held over Trump in the same respondents' self-reported 2024 vote. Among California respondents in the battleground survey, 57 percent favored Democratic congressional candidates and 33 percent backed Republicans.
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