Just one week after Republicans gathered in Dallas for a national midterm convention designed to energize the party, two new polls show Democrats leading or within striking distance in several of Texas' biggest races, as public infighting exposes growing divisions inside the state GOP. A new Siena College/ReconMR poll released Thursday has Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 49 percent to 43 percent in the U.S. Senate race and Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa leading Republican Governor Greg Abbott 49 percent to 45 percent.
A separate Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey has the Senate race closer, with Talarico at 47 percent and Paxton at 46 percent, while Abbott leads Hinojosa 49 percent to 46 percent. Political reporter Jacob Rubashkin described the new Siena/ReconMR numbers as “absolutely brutal for Republicans,” warning on X that they could produce a “generational wipeout” if the results ultimately came to pass. The polling has also raised concern among Republicans.
Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas Republican strategist who managed John Cornyn’s 2014 reelection campaign, told Newsweek, “Right now the Texas GOP is working overtime to make sure that they don't suffer a historic loss.” The results come amid an increasingly fractured Texas GOP. That division was laid bare this week after a convention photo posted by the Texas Republican Party sparked a wave of racist replies and a very public fight over the direction of the party, following a similar backlash to Republican Railroad Commission nominee Bo French's comments about University of Texas students. Newsweek has reached out to French and the Texas GOP for comment.
The Siena College/ReconMR poll, conducted September 8-11 among 614 likely voters, puts Talarico ahead of Paxton 49 percent to 43 percent. That is up from a 47 percent to 43 percent Talarico advantage in July. The governor's race has moved even more sharply in the new survey.
Hinojosa leads Abbott 49 percent to 45 percent, after Abbott led 46 percent to 45 percent in July. Steinhauser said that polls over the past eight weeks had consistently indicated that the Texas races would be competitive. "Although Republicans still might win in the end, it could be very close.
And it is at least a possibility that the Democrats could win," he told Newsweek. "That includes the race for railroad commissioner." The survey also finds Democrats narrowly ahead in the lieutenant governor's race. Democratic state Representative Vikki Goodwin leads Republican incumbent Dan Patrick 47 percent to 46 percent.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
