It's not a presidential election year, but the result could reverberate from the White House to Brussels. On the ballot are all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate. Republicans currently hold a narrow 219-214 majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate.
For President Trump, the stakes could hardly be higher. And the political winds that carried him back to the White House are now blowing hard in the other direction. Two years ago, inflation and the economy propelled Trump back to the White House and handed Republicans control of both chambers of Congress.
The message was simple: change. According to 2024 ABC News exit polling, 28% of voters said the ability to bring needed change was the most important quality in a candidate. Trump won those voters 74% to 24%.
The economy was the top issue for 32% of voters, and Trump won them 81% to 18%, according to NBC News exit polls. That message carried down the ballot. Republicans flipped four Senate seats — West Virginia, Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania — to retake the chamber, ousting long-serving Democrats such as Sherrod Brown and Bob Casey.
Republicans went on the attack, and the Democrats never managed to mount a defence. This time, the Republicans are the incumbents. They face the same message of change that brought them to power, and it does not appear to be a message that will favour them.
The economy is in worse shape than when Trump regained power. Inflation is not only rising, it is higher than when he was elected: 2.7% in November 2024, against 3.7% this September, up from 3.4% in August and driven largely by soaring energy prices. Trump left office in 2021 above water on the economy, 48% to 41%, and in 2024 voters trusted him over Kamala Harris to handle it by 53% to 46%, according to NBC News exit polls.
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