For more than two years, the 2023 Beijing-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran seemed to mark a shift in Gulf politics: Away from confrontation and towards managed coexistence. The agreement neither ended strategic rivalry nor sought to do so. Its significance was more limited but still consequential: It created political space for competition to be managed without repeatedly spilling into direct regional escalation.
That space came under severe strain earlier this year, when direct Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia led Riyadh to expel Iran’s military attache and four other embassy staff. Renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi territory and the postponement of planned talks in Oman are now placing what remains of that diplomatic framework under further strain. Together, these developments expose a deeper contradiction at the heart of Tehran’s regional strategy: Can Iran sustain stable diplomatic relations with its Arab Gulf neighbours while continuing to draw strategic leverage from a regional network capable of directly threatening their security?
The latest escalation marks an important shift in the trajectory of the conflict in Yemen. Fighting that had largely remained within Yemen’s borders has once again crossed into Saudi territory, drawing the consequences of the war directly into the Gulf security environment. On September 8, the Houthis launched a coordinated wave of drone and ballistic missile attacks against several Saudi cities and strategic sites, including Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan and Najran.
The significance of this escalation lies not only in the intensity of the attacks but also in their timing and geographic reach. The strikes coincided with renewed fighting between the Houthis and Yemeni government forces around Bab al-Mandeb, one of the region’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints. By mid-September, the escalation had also produced serious humanitarian consequences, displacing tens of thousands of people within Yemen and pushing others across the Red Sea to Djibouti.
The Houthi seizure of Mocha and strategic islands around Bab al-Mandeb further underscored the confrontation’s strategic dimension. The conflict, in other words, is no longer defined solely by control of territory within Yemen. It is increasingly tied to control of strategic geography and to the capacity to project pressure beyond Yemen’s borders.
The timing matters because the escalation is unfolding alongside growing pressure elsewhere in the region. Since Israel and the United States launched their war on Iran in February, Tehran has severely restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sharply increasing the importance of Saudi Arabia’s western export routes through the Red Sea. That shift has, in turn, increased the strategic importance of Bab al-Mandeb as an alternative gateway for energy flows.
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