The EU and Canada, Ursula von der Leyen said last week, “see the world with the same eyes”, with shared stances on everything from AI to the climate crisis, the Ukraine war and the unholy chaos unleashed by the current occupant of the White House (OK, she didn’t actually say that last bit. But I like to think she almost certainly thought it.) So, the European Commission president went on, Canada should become “the first associate member of the EU”. In the audience, Mark Carney beamed with delight.
The next day, Canada’s prime minister enthusiastically embraced the idea of an “alliance for the future”, to build “collective resilience” through “deep cooperation”. Cue standing ovations, warm handshakes – and a great deal of head-scratching in Brussels and assorted EU capitals. Because “associate membership” of the EU is not, in fact, a thing.
Nor, as a Guardian editorial pointed out, is there “any blueprint for what such a thing might involve”. The term was, the editorial argued, “a political hypothesis”, describing “a relationship of intimate strategic alignment with the EU, stopping short of actual membership, in ways that are significant but undefined”. So what exactly are the commission and Canada playing at here, and where might it lead?
You can see where they’re coming from. On paper, in a world of unpredictable and increasingly aggressive great powers, it makes perfect sense. For Canada – which already has the Ceta free trade agreement with the EU – the catalyst for even closer cooperation is clearly Donald Trump: incessant tariff threats, an escalating trade war, bullying talk of Canada as the “51st state”, the renaming of Lake Ontario – all have left Ottawa eager to diversify its relations.
Aligning with European industrial strategy, working together on defence and AI, and joining EU scientific research and student exchange programmes would offer Canada a reliable counterweight to its all-too-unreliable southern neighbour. (Unsurprisingly, Trump called the tie-up “laughable”, and threatened more tariffs.) For the EU, meanwhile, Canada is a dream partner: a stable, like-minded “middle power” rich in critical minerals, rare earths and – as Carney couldn’t resist noting – good manners. Plus, Canada’s unbridled EU-enthusiasm is a pleasing boost to the bloc’s bruised ego after Iceland’s recent rejection of more EU accession negotiations. There’s only one problem: “associate membership” is not a status in the EU treaties, and creating such a status would mean treaty reform, which member states won’t contemplate.
There are things called “association agreements”, such as with Ukraine, Moldova or Georgia, but those are essentially stepping stones to full membership – which Canada can’t aspire to, for the very good reason that it isn’t in Europe. But if “associate member” sounds vaguely familiar, that’s because the EU has been talking about a “second circle” since the days of Jacques Delors: an outer ring of countries bound by shared values, free trade and security cooperation to an inner core of members, but without full voting rights or complete regulatory integration. Emmanuel Macron’s European Political Community is a variation on this theme, and Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, recently floated “associate member” status for Ukraine.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
