The global economy is starting to look K-shaped. Here are the winners and losers, and where the U.S. fits.

IMF sees a split global economy, with countries less exposed to the oil shock and benefiting from AI demand pulling ahead Shipping containers are stacked on a container ship at the Port of Los Angeles. The global economy is starting to look K-shaped, with countries with limited exposure to the Iran-war shock and strong participation in the AI-technology upturn reaping benefits while others struggle, the International Monetary Fund said, in its latest report on the global economy released Monday night. The global economy is projected to decelerate to a 3.1% growth rate in 2026 before recovering to a 3.4% rate in 2027.

That’s an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points for next year. Copyright ©2026 MarketWatch, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8 Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.

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