Six months ago, the United States and Israel struck targets across Tehran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other Iranian leaders. It fulfilled a long-held ambition of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a joint attack with the US on Iran, with Washington now locked in a war from which it is unable to extricate itself. The US’s stated war aims also appear not to have been achieved, with President Donald Trump’s initial claim that Iran’s nuclear capacity had been destroyed now appearing false.
Netanyahu might have hoped that the fall of the government in Tehran would be part of his election campaign. And in Iran, the consequences of six months of war have done little to reverse the struggling economy, which appears to be the government’s Achilles heel. The cost-of-living crisis was the mainstay of Trump’s criticisms of the previous administration of Joe Biden during the 2024 US election, but petrol prices alone have risen by 50 percent since the war on Iran began on February 28.
Trump’s repeated empty claims that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is imminent appear to be doing little to help his struggling Republican Party ahead of midterm elections due to take place in November. Numerous surveys show Trump’s approval rating is at a record low, with criticism of his foreign policy competing with disapproval of his domestic record. Adding to the pressure on Trump are reports that he entered the unpopular war on Iran at the behest of Netanyahu, with fewer than one in three Americans supportive of the conflict, according to a recent Ipsos poll.
Still, despite the costly effects of the war and sanctions on the Iranian economy and the destruction to its military, American author and diplomat Aaron David Miller pointed out that the government in Tehran has survived. Iran has also weaponised geography, in that it’s essentially closed off the Strait,” he told Al Jazeera. The public unrest or internal dissent the US had hoped for hasn’t arisen.
In terms of Iranian deterrence, it’s been a huge success for Tehran.” The failure of Trump and Netanyahu’s military endeavour in Iran could have long-term effects on US foreign policy. Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst and senior teaching fellow at King’s College London, said Netanyahu is viewed as having failed in Gaza, Lebanon and now in Iran. For Netanyahu, the war in Iran is perceived by many Israelis as a major security error.
It all failed, and Iran is now closer than ever to having the bomb.” The US decision to sign a memorandum of understanding with Iran, without Israel’s involvement in June, provided Netanyahu’s political opponents with multiple reasons to attack the prime minister. If anything, it joins the list of things where he’s overpromised and underdelivered, given how much was expected of it as a decisive moment.” The view that Iran still poses a fundamental threat to Israel, and the war has done nothing to minimise this, is a widely held belief among Israelis. Despite the Iranian government remaining in place, the sanctions and the US siege on Iranian ports do appear to be affecting the Iranian economy.
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