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The Iran war has strengthened Ukraine in surprising ways. Could a ceasefire with Russia be closer?

The Iran war has strengthened Ukraine in surprising ways. Could a ceasefire with Russia be closer?

bbc.com 03.05.2026 03:19 18 baxış
President Zelensky has been visiting the Gulf to demonstrate his country's military nous.

Katya AdlerEurope editorBBCWhen Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, serious-faced and clad in black, strolled down a lilac carpet in Saudi Arabia in March, it marked a moment in the US-Israeli war in Iran. A rather unexpected one.In a post on X, he said his visit was to "strengthen the protection of lives".Zelensky, who carries the weight of Ukraine's own war with Russia on his shoulders, has been seizing the moment, flying to the Gulf to publicly showcase the international value and marketability of Kyiv's learned-on-the-battlefield military nous in drone warfare.Ukraine says it has now signed deals with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar - all hit by Iranian missiles and drones in recent weeks - to share drone expertise and technology, tightening alliances and benefitting from business - and it hopes defence deals - with wealthy US-allied countries."We want to help [Gulf states] defend themselves. And we will continue building such partnerships with other countries," Zelensky said.Energy pressureInitially, the impact of the Iran conflict seemed overwhelmingly negative for Ukraine.

It threatened to divert Donald Trump's already wavering attention from orchestrating peace efforts between Moscow and Kyiv, while pouring money into Russia's fast-emptying war chest.Moscow has been able to sell more of its oil to more countries, at higher prices as tankers carrying Middle Eastern oil are unable to reach global customers by crossing the Iran-bordering Strait of Hormuz. Trump has renewed a waiver allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil because of spiralling costs worldwide.The more money Russia has, the longer and in theory harder it can prosecute the war in Ukraine.But Kyiv has consistently confounded international expectations since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.And now it's done so again: playing a deft hand at trying to turn the impact of the Iran war to its advantage, as Ukraine tries to get itself in the strongest position possible before eventual, hoped-for peace negotiations with Russia.ReutersUkraine has been showcasing its battlefield nous to the Gulf countriesOn Wednesday, Trump said he was confident a "solution" over Ukraine could be reached "relatively quickly" following a "very good" conversation with Vladimir Putin. "I think 'some people' (have) made it difficult for him to make a deal," he added.It's not the first time Trump's made similar positive comments about Putin, while implicitly or explicitly criticising Ukraine's leader for not signing up to a ceasefire.A "solution" has yet to materialise.In the meantime, Zelensky has focused on bolstering Ukraine where he can.

Opportunism is arguably one of his most potent weapons.Saudi Arabia, which he visited again in April, has faced the same type of ballistic missile and drone attacks from Iran that Russia barrages Ukraine with, he said.One of Moscow's most powerful weapons has been the Iranian-designed low-cost, long-range Shahed-136 attack drone, plus its own updated version, the Geran.While a Shahed can cost between $80,000 and $130,000 (£59,500 and £95,500), Zelensky says it can be intercepted with systems costing as little as $10,000 (£7,400). That's far cheaper than traditional air defence missiles which cost millions of dollars.Threatened by Russian drone sightings in a number of European cities, Nato countries have been paying attention.ReutersAs attacks on Ukraine continue, Donald Trump has said he thinks he can achieve a ceasefire "relatively quickly"Ukraine signed two substantial defence cooperation agreements with European allies in April. One was with Norway, for $8.6bn, as part of a $28bn package of support until 2030.

The other was with Germany, including "various types of drones, missiles, software and modern defence systems," valued at $4.7bn.As for the Gulf States, Zelensky said he hoped for their help defending Ukraine against Russia.Particularly because at the moment, the US has less military hardware available to sell to Europeans to help Ukraine, as Washington burns through supplies in the Middle East. Trump's response when asked about redirecting weapons has been: "We do that all the time. Sometimes we take from one, and we use for another.""We would like Middle Eastern states to also give us an opportunity to strengthen ourselves," Zelensky recently told French newspaper Le Monde.

"They have certain air defence missiles of which we don't have enough. That's what we'd like to reach a deal on.Targeting infrastructureUkraine has also learned a key lesson from the Iran conflict to use back home: the big bang impact of attacking an adversary's oil export facilities. Russia's energy infrastructure is now a priority target, using Ukraine-manufactured long-range drones.According to Zelensky, Russia is suffering "critical" losses running to billions of dollars in its energy sector despite the recent surge in global oil prices.Crude oil export data suggests the rise in prices, plus the easing of American sanctions on countries buying Russian oil, boosted Russian revenues to 2.3 times their December-February levels in the third week of the Iran war.But in the fourth week, Ukrainian drone strikes on energy-producing infrastructure reduced Russia's earnings by $1bn, eradicating around two-thirds of the previous week's gains.Getty Images"I think 'some people' (have) made it difficult for him to make a deal," Donald Trump has said of Vladimir PutinAnother plus for Ukraine from the Iran war fallout has been finally getting the green light last week on a €90bn (£78bn), EU-backed loan that Kyiv said it urgently needed to purchase and produce military equipment over the coming year.

The loan had been blocked for months by EU member Hungary's then pro-Kremlin prime minister. But Hungary now has a new, determinedly less Russia-friendly leader, after Viktor Orbán's reso

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