Tip: Try a valid symbol or a specific company name for relevant results The Semaglutide Cliff vs. a 10x Multiple: Is Novo Nordisk (NVO) a Value Trap or a Bargain? The above button links to Coinbase. Yahoo Finance is not a broker-dealer or investment adviser and does not offer securities or cryptocurrencies for sale or facilitate trading.
Coinbase pays us for certain activity generated through this link. Prices displayed are informational. Morgan Stanley has cut Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO) to Underweight on September 11, 2026.
Semaglutide, the underlying molecule for Wegovy and Ozempic, generates roughly 75% of 2026 revenue. Morgan Stanley models that it will still represent 59% of total sales when its patent protection expires in 2031. And according to the firm, the valuation does not price in the impact it has on Novo's terminal value.
The stock, currently trading at 10.6x earnings and down 33% from its 52-week high, slipped another 2% following the call. At this point, the question isn't about whether the patent cliff is real or not, but whether the 10x multiple reflects an actual bargain. The Semaglutide Cliff vs. a 10x Multiple: Is Novo Nordisk (NVO) a Value Trap or a Bargain?
Semaglutide loses exclusivity in Europe in 2031 and the US in 2032. And Morgan Stanley believes Novo's oral-obesity business, projected to reach $10 billion by 2031, could not offset the pricing collapse after the arrival of generics. Growth decelerates to a 4% compound rate between 2027 and 2030.
If the deceleration continues, it will justify 10x earnings as a fair price instead of a cheap one. The 10.6x multiple already prices aggressive pessimism into a market leader of one of the fastest-growing drug classes in history. Morgan Stanley fueled the pessimism by discounting a 2031 cliff five years earlier.
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