Congress has about six years to shore up the Social Security trust fund, which is expected to run out of reserves by the end of 2032. Enacting a solution is liable to be a significant political battle, likely involving cutting benefits for some Americans or raising taxes on higher earners, or both. And so far, congressional leaders haven't made it a top-tier issue.
Elizabeth Warren and Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno proposed raising the payroll tax for some Americans. Revenues from the tax go into the trust fund.
But that bipartisan effort was immediately panned by conservative groups, and little else has emerged as a serious solution. This limited public discussion has created a separate concern, experts warn: that most Americans don't fully understand the problems Social Security faces — let alone be able to weigh in on solutions to the coming shortfall. "There is a lot of misunderstanding about what all of this even means," Bill Sweeney, senior vice president for government affairs at AARP, told NPR.
Sweeney's group conducted a poll last year that found that just 34% of those surveyed correctly explained that when the trust fund runs out, Social Security will still be able to make payments, but just at a reduced rate. "That's a failing grade," he said. "So, we've got a lot of work to do, even on just general education about what it means when the Social Security insolvency date happens." Another 36% of respondents incorrectly believe that when the trust fund is depleted, Social Security would be unable to pay any benefits at all.
If Congress fails to act, payments are expected to be 22% lower, which could be devastating for the millions of seniors who rely on their Social Security benefits to pay for basic necessities. Sweeney said getting Congress to focus on the Social Security trust fund will be tough because so much else demands their immediate attention. "And so I'm not super confident that they're going to clear the decks and focus on something that's six years away," he said.
"It's not very long for regular folks, but for Congress, it can be almost a lifetime." Sweeney is also concerned that Social Security isn't coming up on the campaign trail, particularly among Senate candidates, who serve six-year terms. "The people who we elect to the United States Senate in November are almost certainly going to be the ones in the Senate in 2032 deciding what to do with people's Social Security," he said. "And the fact that it's not coming up very often in the debates or in the questions I think is a serious failing.
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