The stock market’s best forecasting tool says returns over the next 10 years will be dismal The stock market’s best forecasting tool says returns over the next 10 years will be dismal The average U.S. household’s equity allocation is at an all-time high, and that doesn’t bode well, according to the ‘Single Greatest Predictor’ One usually reliable stock-market indicator is predicting a bearish future. /iStockphoto The “Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns” has never been more bearish. I’m referring to the average U.S. household’s portfolio allocation to stocks. It is an inverse indicator, with higher equity allocations correlated with lower returns over the subsequent 10 years, and vice versa.
Credit for discovering the indicator goes to the anonymous author of the Philosophical Economics blog. Copyright ©2026 MarketWatch, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8 Mark Hulbert is a columnist for MarketWatch.
His Hulbert Ratings service tracks investment newsletters that pay a flat fee to be audited. It’s the strangest job market the U.S. has ever seen. The low-hire, low-fire economy turns 3 years old.
Microsoft to raise up to $25 billion in bond market as investors get pickier about AI debt binge What’s the first thing most people do with their 401(k) after they retire? Alphabet’s stock just triggered a ‘death cross.’ Could the worst of the selloff be over? Intraday Data provided by FACTSET and subject to terms of use.
Historical and current end-of-day data provided by FACTSET. All quotes are in local exchange time. Real-time last sale data for U.S. stock quotes reflect trades reported through Nasdaq only.
Intraday data delayed at least 15 minutes or per exchange requirements.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
