The defending champions, Manchester City, have five wins from five games but more intriguing stories lie elsewhere. Why are Arsenal struggling, who is performing better than results suggest, and in which way are two promoted teams smashing expectations? Here are three key data points.
Opta made Arsenal third favourites to win the WSL before a ball was kicked. Their win at Brighton combined with Chelsea’s draw against Aston Villa in week one meant Renée Slegers’ side rose to narrow favourites. The four games since, from which Arsenal took two points, have torpedoed their title chances.
One reason for their slump is a continuation of a problem from last season. The stats section of our Arsenal pre-season preview highlighted draws in 2025-26 that they deserved to win based on expected goals. That trend has continued this season with positive xG margins of 2.2 and 1.2 in their home games against Crystal Palace (0-0) and Manchester United (1-1) respectively.
Had Smilla Holmberg not scored with her only shot of the campaign in the 95th minute against United, the situation would be even worse. While players inevitably have a small sample of shots at this point, Arsenal’s finishing woes are a collective problem. Only Lisa Baum and Alessia Russo have also scored, with the latter 1.28 goals below her expected goal tally.
Scoring three goals in the international break may help Russo’s confidence. A physical deficiency may also be contributing to Arsenal’s struggles. Gradient Sports award players an athleticism score, a single metric which incorporates stamina, explosiveness and game context.
There are 125 WSL players with a score who have played at least 270 minutes this season. Steph Catley is Arsenal’s highest-ranked player, at 31st, and their only representative above 59th. Every other club has at least two players in the top 50, with Chelsea having five.
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