There could be no Atlantic hurricanes this year – but there’s a catch

Forecasters say it’s possible that the U.S. may not see any Atlantic hurricanes this season, potentially breaking a century-old record. The last time that happened was in 1914 and it has never happened again during the satellite era, AccuWeather said Thursday. Years with El Niño climate patterns typically suppress Atlantic hurricane formation – and this year is expected to potentially be the most intense El Niño to date.

This week marks the season’s peak, with only five tropical storms – storms that brought flooding across the Gulf Coast – recorded since its June 1 start. That’s much lower than the historical average of nine tropical storms and four hurricanes typically seen by mid-September, AccuWeather notes, as well as the National Hurricane Center’s August prediction of 7-13 named storms and 2-6 hurricanes. But El Niño has been continuing to strengthen, and will until its peak in the winter.

Still, even if there are hurricanes later in the season, a record could be broken. If no hurricanes form through Friday, it would break the record of the latest date for the first Atlantic hurricane of the season. The previous record of September 11 was set in 2002 and again in 2013.

Right now, AccuWeather meteorologists say they still expect between 8-11 storms and 3-4 hurricanes. "If there is going to be an uptick in tropical activity in the Atlantic for the balance of the season, it is likely to be during late September to early October," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. He added that the storms would have to form near the Bahamas or in the northeast Gulf which “is not very common this time of year." The trade-off to a potentially historically inactive Atlantic has been a super-active Pacific hurricane season, which is a hallmark of El Niño.

Just this month, three hurricanes spun up off the California coast, traveling west. Hurricane Lowell sideswiped Hawaii, killing two people including a 90-year-old former kindergarten teacher. The last time there were three hurricanes simultaneously in the Eastern or Central Pacific was in 2015, another El Niño year, NASA said.

More increased activity is expected in the region through the end of the year and into early 2027. Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies