From her balcony in Launceston, Kayla Thompson can see the buzz of construction at what will soon be one of Australia’s first AI factories. Her teenage stepchildren get an even clearer view from their classroom window. Like many of her neighbours, Thompson didn’t realise Firmus Technologies had an ambitious plan to build datacentres in Tasmania until after construction began.
The Australian company was on a mission, and preparing to list on the ASX later this month after an anticipated initial public offering designed to raise $7bn from investors. It is on track to be the second-largest IPO on record behind Telstra’s $14bn share sale in 1997, and one of the top five in the world this year. Its massive 104-megawatt datacentre at St Leonards, worth an estimated $2.1bn, was given fast-tracked approval by the city of Launceston in September last year without a public hearing.
She joined a protest group that believes Tasmanians were kept in the dark by the company. Community backlash was threatening two other proposed datacentres in the state’s north-east. With an IPO months away, it organised dozens of public consultation sessions with a pre-prepared message.
As Firmus prepares to ask prospective shareholders for billions of dollars in the heat of a global AI boom, its Tasmanian missteps offer an unfiltered look at the operational risks behind the pitch. A year ago, as local councillors approved the five-hectare AI factory in Launceston, Firmus was worth just under $2bn in a private funding round. As plans emerged to build liquid-cooled datacentres across the Asia-Pacific alongside AI chip maker Nvidia, which acts as both an investor and hardware supplier, that valuation surged.
In less than 12 months, the implied valuation leaped from $2bn toward a targeted $40bn-plus ASX debut. Now, investment analysts are dangling figures as high as $100bn, a price tag that would make Firmus twice the size of Telstra. One investment manager who viewed the company’s draft prospectus tells Guardian Australia the valuation “keeps randomly compounding when nothing has really changed”.
The majority of its ambitious pipeline is unbuilt, with the company now operating just two facilities, one in Melbourne and the other in Singapore. The draft prospectus shows Firmus is forecasting $5bn in annual earnings once its development pipeline progresses, which would put it in the top tier of ASX earners. A Firmus spokesperson declined to comment when asked series of questions by Guardian Australia regarding the feasibility of its earnings forecast and valuation.
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