He wasn't the most hyped pitching prospect of the past half-decade. Following Paul Skenes, he definitely had a case for the No. 2 pick. He was the No. 3 pick in last year's draft – a candidate to go No. 1 after a dominant career at LSU – and was historically good in his time in the minors.
That consisted of 18 starts with a 1.06 ERA at Double-A, with an utterly absurd 135:13 K:BB ratio in 93.1 innings of work. In every way a pitcher could dominate, Anderson did, and the drumbeat for his promotion started in roughly May. Fantasy players started stashing him in the late spring, and by the time he got to the bigs, the hype couldn't have been higher.
And, as it turns out, maybe they should have been lower. We're now three starts into Anderson's career after he gave up four runs to the Athletics Thursday in Seattle, and he's got a 5.40 ERA to show for it. And it's not like this is just a case of a bit of bad luck cropping up in a small sample size – Anderson has just 11 strikeouts to seven walks in 15 innings, and he has given up three homers to date.
And it's not like he's faced exclusively tough matchups – the landing spot against the red-hot Cubs was a tough one for his MLB debut, but the Blue Jays are a bottom-five offense in the majors in the second half, while the A's rank 13th in runs scored. And at this point, there really isn't even anything positive to really point to. The velocity on his fastball was down 1.1 mph Thursday to 92.9 mph (more on his slider) and he just didn't look especially effective against a pretty whiff-prone team.
He generated eight swinging strikes on 79 pitches in line with his very average whiff marks so far, and he allowed an average exit velocity of 89.5 mph, his worst mark in three starts to date. The stuff merely looks okay, the command hasn't been as good as advertised, and he's struggling to keep the ball in the yard. It's pretty much been all bad.
Well, it's only three starts. His first three starts ever above Double-A! It's way too early to write Anderson off, and our view of him for 2027 and beyond probably shouldn't have changed much.
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