Millions of people will participate in elections in Russia this weekend and a new parliament will be chosen, but not necessarily in that order. The purpose of the exercise is to maintain Vladimir Putin’s authority over the political process, which means United Russia, the president’s party, will retain control of the Duma. That much is settled before the polls open, although the scale of the government’s victory won’t be declared until the votes are counted.
A portion of seats is available for other “systemic parties” that function as Kremlin licensed-opposition, padding out the pretence of pluralism. They serve as a pressure valves for public frustration and parliamentary proxies when rival factions within the ruling elite want to nudge Kremlin policy in one direction or another. The Kremlin likes to minimise the difference between United Russia’s official tally and a number that would plausibly reflect public attitudes to the regime.
If the gap is too wide, achieved by fraud too blatant, it conveys insecurity in the Kremlin. Putin’s power doesn’t depend on endorsement by ordinary Russians but his authority is sustained by the illusion that he listens and cares. An egregiously stolen election would prove that he doesn’t.
Everyone knows the result is fixed, but it would breach a social contract if the fiction became too absurd. Electoral verisimilitude is harder than usual to pull off this time because of war fatigue. No one can pretend any more that the “special military operation” in Ukraine has gone to plan.
It was supposed to take weeks and is now in its fifth year. There have been about 1.5 million Russian casualties. A shortage of volunteers stirs fear that another mobilisation of unwilling army reserves is in the works.
Putin has denied that any such draft is required. That he needs to offer public reassurance at all amounts to recognition that progress on the front has stalled and the mood at home has soured. Ukrainian drone and missile strikes have made the war visible and economically palpable thousands of miles away from the frontline.
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