Every week the CFP Vibe Check tries to put its finger on where things stand in the College Football Playoff race without overreacting to what it just saw, but also probably overreacting to everything it just saw. We do not have a long history of the 12-team College Football Playoff, but in the two years of its existence, we have seen two teams with three losses make the field. The first was a 10-3 Clemson that won the ACC in 2024 and got in as a 12-seed.
Last year it was an Alabama team that finished the regular season 10-2 before picking up its third loss of the season in the SEC Championship against Georgia. Now that we're halfway through the 2026 regular season, I can't help but wonder if we won't see more 3-loss teams in the field than we saw in 2024 and 2025 combined. I don't know who those teams will be, but I know who one of them won't be.
The Oregon Ducks saw their playoff hopes die for good on Saturday. A week after needing a last-minute touchdown drive to beat Nebraska, the Ducks dropped their third game of the season at Illinois, losing 21-10. It was the first time since joining the Big Ten that the Ducks lost a conference game on the road.
It also snapped a streak of 61 straight games in which Oregon scored more than 10 points. There was nothing about the loss we hadn't seen from the Ducks already this year. They still didn't have Dante Moore at QB, and were without Evan Stewart and a host of wide receivers.
While injuries and off-field problems have certainly played a role in an abject disaster of a season -- don't forget, Oregon began the year as a national title favorite -- there was one thing I noticed in the loss that stood out to me, something that's been a concern for the Ducks all year. You see, Illinois had injuries of its own. The Illini lost their starting QB, Katin Houser, for the season in their last game, and were starting a true freshman, Michael Clayton, in his place.
Clayton did not have a great game statistically, though he did throw for two touchdowns in the second half to help the Illini come back from an early 10-0 deficit. But what stood out about the performance is that Illinois seemed to have an actual plan on offense. Offensive coordinator Barry Lunney has been in Champaign since the 2022 season and has built some strong offenses.
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