Every week the CFP Vibe Check tries to put its finger on where things stand in the College Football Playoff race without overreacting to what it just saw, but also probably overreacting to everything it just saw. In the not-so-long history of the College Football Playoff, there are only two teams that have managed to finish ranked in the final CFP ranking each season: Ohio State and Alabama. What's even more impressive for the Buckeyes is that they've never finished a season ranked lower than No. 7.
That means if there had been a 12-team field since the inception of the CFP, Ohio State would've made it every year. Even Alabama would've missed out in 2019. Yet, here we are, in the third season of the actual 12-team field, and there's a very real shot No. 2 Ohio State won't be in it.
The Buckeyes lost to USC 30-18 Saturday night, continuing the 2026 season's theme of top teams losing to unranked teams. However, this loss probably shouldn't have been all that much of a shock. Even if the Buckeyes were favored by a touchdown, they were still on the road with a first-time starter at QB, and a true freshman at that.
And while USC may be perennially disappointing, there's quite a difference between a disappointing USC and a disappointing Rutgers. The Trojans have five-star recruits too. Luke Fahey, the freshman in question, looked every bit the part.
He overthrew open passes and learned that, no matter what seemingly everybody outside the program thought, it's not as easy as just "throw it to Jeremiah Smith." He panicked when pressured, and sometimes even only when he thought he was being pressured. There were presnap penalties that often accompany new QBs. And there weren't nearly enough points on the scoreboard.
It was one of the uglier Ohio State performances of recent memory, and it's the second loss of the season, which drastically thins this team's margin of error going forward. I expect Fahey to improve the more he plays, but I don't know that he'll improve enough. Next week the Buckeyes will be back at home facing an Oregon team that suddenly looked like it got its act together in a 34-26 win over No. 20 Northwestern.
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