A new Marquette Law School poll showed a close race between Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a Democrat and Republican Representative Tom Tiffany in the Wisconsin governor’s race, as both parties view the seat as competitive in the 2026 midterms. Wisconsin is one of the most closely divided swing states, so both parties are targeting the governor race after incumbent two-term Governor Tony Evers, a Democrat, announced his retirement. Wisconsin voters have gone back and forth between the parties over recent election cycles, backing President Donald Trump by only about a single point in 2024.
Democrats are optimistic about Crowley’s chances, as they believe he will benefit from political headwinds favoring their party. President Donald Trump’s approval rating has slipped to record lows in several polls and threatens to weigh down Republicans in closely divided states. But Republicans still believe the race is competitive, particularly after a divisive Democratic primary that saw Crowley barely eke out a victory against democratic socialist Francesca Hong.
The new poll gave Crowley a slight advantage among likely voters, showing he has support from 49 percent of Wisconsin voters compared to 44 percent planning to cast their ballots for Tiffany. Seven percent were still undecided about who they would support. Among registered voters, however, the race was tied, with each candidate receiving 44 percent support and 12 percent saying they are undecided.
The poll also found that Republicans are more excited about voting. Fifty-five percent of Republican respondents said they are “very enthusiastic” to cast their ballot for their nominee in November, compared to 49 percent of Democrats. Among Democratic voters with a favorable opinion of Hong, 52% are very enthusiastic about voting, while 63% of those favorable to Crowley are very enthusiastic,” the pollster wrote in a post on X.
It surveyed 891 registered voters in Wisconsin from August 12 to 20, 2026, and had a margin of error of ±4 percentage points. The poll also found that Trump is broadly unpopular among the electorate, reaching a new low of -19 points, with 59 percent disapproving and 40 percent approving among registered voters. That is a new low for Trump’s approval in a Marquette poll, down from a -18 net approval rating in July.
Still, Democrats were viewed more negatively in the poll. Unfavorable views of the Democratic Party stood at 60 percent, while unfavorable views of the Republican Party were at 55 percent. On the generic ballot, Democrats led by only 3 points, 48 percent to 45 percent.
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