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Trade tensions, high prices and interest rates drive slip in consumers' outlook

Trade tensions, high prices and interest rates drive slip in consumers' outlook

phys.org 25.09.2026 17:20 4 views
Consumer sentiment fell by less than four index points in September, reaching its lowest reading in four months and down 15% from January 2026, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

This article has been reviewed according to Science X's editorial process and policies. Editors have highlighted the following attributes while ensuring the content's credibility: Consumer sentiment fell by less than four index points in September, reaching its lowest reading in four months and down 15% from January 2026, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Views of current and expected personal finances a year from now both weakened about 10% this month, with concerns about high prices continuing to climb.

"Short-run expected business conditions plunged amid renewed worries that elevated fuel prices and reescalating trade disputes could pass through to the economy as a whole," said U-M economist Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys. "Overall, interviews reveal broad agreement across demographic and political groups that the outlook for the economy has softened over the course of the year." Consumers perceive increasing pressure on their cost of living, both now and in the future. About 55% of consumers cited elevated prices as a negative factor for their personal finances, up from 53% last month and 44% a year ago.

After declining for two straight months, spontaneous references to gasoline increased in September to 31% of consumers amid rising fuel prices. "In fact, consumers do not believe that relief from high gas prices is on the horizon; they broadly expect gasoline prices to continue rising in both the short and long run," Hsu said. The reescalation of trade tensions also weighed on consumers this month, as unsolicited comments about tariffs rose for the second month in a row, from 24% in July to 35% in September.

Rising interest rates added pressure on consumers, Hsu said. Buying conditions for homes declined this month, with increased interest rates overtaking elevated prices as the top factor weighing on consumers. Higher borrowing costs drove down buying conditions for vehicles as well.

September's decline in sentiment was seen across the political spectrum. Republican sentiment is 20% lower than in January 2026 and below its historical average, according to Hsu. While concerns about the cost of living are pervasive across the political spectrum, the share of Republicans volunteering that their personal finances have been eroded by high prices reached its second-highest reading since February 2025.

The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 48.1 in the September 2026 survey, down from 51.7 in August and below last September's 55.1. The Current Index fell to 50.9, down from 51.9 in August and below last September's 60.4. The Expectations Index fell to 46.3, down from 51.5 in August and below last September's 51.7.

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