United States President Donald Trump has promised a $5,000 payout for every adult US citizen if the Republican Party holds onto its narrow control of both houses of Congress at the upcoming midterm elections in November. Trump headlined a large Republican convention in Dallas, Texas, this week, in a bid to energise Republican supporters amid poor polling that indicates there could be a surge of support for the Democratic Party across the country. But at a time of rising energy prices, inflation, an ongoing and deeply unpopular war with Iran and rising national debt, the move has prompted questions about whether the world’s biggest economy can actually afford to pay what has been dubbed the “Trump dividend” to 270 million adult Americans – and whether it would even be legal to do so.
To loud applause and chants of “USA, USA”, he said: “I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States of America for $5,000,” as long as the Republican Party keeps its majorities in both the House of Representatives and the US Senate. Trump did not elaborate on how or when the payments would be made – or how they would be funded – stipulating only that people would be required to spend it in the US. Vice President JD Vance suggested the money would come from revenues raised by Trump’s trade tariffs.
He told Fox News: “What the president is talking about is fundamentally a dividend for American workers. We’re taking in an extraordinary amount of revenue because the president of the United States is actually standing up to both foreign companies, but also foreign countries who’ve been taking advantage of America’s workers. I don’t think it’s a controversial idea.” But the US-based Tax Policy Center projects that tariffs will raise about $1.7 trillion “in fiscal years 2026 through 2036, with $177bn raised in 2026”.
A “Trump dividend” of $5,000 for every US adult, therefore, amounts to about three-quarters of the total revenue projected across 11 years. Most of that money has not yet been collected, as it is an economic forecast only. Additionally, it does not take into consideration the burden of countertariffs imposed by other countries on US exports.
Ultimately, it would have to be funded by national debt, analysts say. This means the money Trump is promising to the American people would add to the massive mountain of debt the state has borrowed from domestic and foreign investors alike. That extra borrowing drives up the total interest payments the government has to make.
That bill will ultimately have to be paid back by the American people. Currently, the US is paying about $1.1 trillion annually to service its debt, slightly more than it spends on defence. US national debt hit $40 trillion in August, the highest it’s ever been.
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