Sweeping cuts to the premier US climate agency under Donald Trump have severely hampered the country’s capacity to forecast, research and respond to extreme weather events, former government officials and scientists have warned, as the US faces a cascade of hazards fueled by a potentially historic El Niño this winter. From the start of his second term, the president has taken aim at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa), slashing staff levels, canceling contracts and grants, and shutting down databases and research laboratories. The agency that has long been considered a global crown jewel in climate science and forecasting, has lost roughly 20% of its staff since January 2025.
The National Weather Service, which is housed within Noaa, has also taken a hit. Weather stations have had to delay data collection and cut operating hours, with hundreds of meteorological and other technical positions still vacant across its 122 forecast offices. The effects have already been felt at Noaa, where a chaotic and volatile environment has plummeted morale, increased burnout and hampered vital work.
While capacity has quietly unravelled, a large-scale disaster will quickly expose the most dangerous gaps. This year’s super El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer than average equatorial sea surface temperatures, has the ability to fuel extreme weather events around the world. It’s already climbing off the charts and is expected to strengthen through the northern hemisphere’s autumn and winter.
Along with dangerous spikes in temperature, El Niño will supercharge storms in parts of the American west, raise sea levels in California by up to a foot, and set the stage for debris flows, land slides and flash floods. Noaa plays a pivotal role in public safety and provides key insights and forecasts relied upon by a vast array of communities and industries, from weather shifts that could affect crop schedules, to emergency response preparations when hurricanes are brewing or fire conditions are aligning. The agency operates early warning systems for tsunamis, monitors seafood supply chains and provides ocean data needed for safe shipping and port operators.
While the losses are expected to have a profound effect on the American public, they will be felt globally, too. Scientists and forecasters around the world depend on Noaa satellites, studies, and intelligence, including data-sharing arrangements that track severe weather across Europe, coordination for disaster response in the Caribbean and monitoring deforestation and the effects of the climate crisis in the Amazon rainforest. The risks are but a taste of what’s to come as the world warms.
Gaps in staffing, operations, and engagement with the public are the top three concerns for Rick Spinrad, who spent three decades at the agency and served as Noaa administrator for the Biden administration. The agency was already shorthanded in those areas when Trump took office, according to Spinrad. But since January 2025, Noaa has lost more than 3,000 staffers, according to workforce data from the US office of personnel management which was last updated in August this year.
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