It is increasingly clear that President Donald Trump is constrained in what he can do against Iran between now and the midterm elections. Americans have little appetite for a wider war, and Trump knows that escalation could cost Republicans dearly in tight Congressional races in November. Iran knows it too, obviously, which explains its outrageous behavior.
We all know that after the midterms Trump may have a freer hand—but think about what that means. Trump is constrained now because the American people are about to vote, but that constraint largely disappears after they do. If he then pursues a course he feared pursuing before the election, he will have used the election to escape judgment for it.
Put simply, he will have fooled the American voter. Trump should have made the case long ago—as he should be now—about what he proposes to do with the Iran problem. That’s because unlike his fights over Greenland or Canada or NATO, it is not a MAGA fever dream but a real problem.
It is a problem which requires some sacrifice and tolerance of pain to fix. And it may not wait for the midterms to play out. Tehran can and will ignore the American electoral calendar.
It continues to press its claim to control over the Strait of Hormuz, and there is little reason to assume it will indefinitely absorb the economic warfare being waged against it without lashing out. Iran should be facing a reasonably united American electorate and a totally aligned array of American allies. But Trump has spent his second term insulting and provoking allies and is in a kind of domestic cold war with Americans who didn’t vote for him.
War against Iran made sense only if regime change was the goal. The regime itself is the source of the problem, both for the region and, above all, for the Iranian people. But regime change could mean a long war, higher oil prices, American casualties and Iranian retaliation across the region.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
