Volodymyr Zelensky last week claimed Donald Trump had agreed to grant Kyiv a license to produce its own U.S.-designed Patriot air defense systems on Ukrainian soil. The White House has yet to confirm, but even if the license were formally issued today, Ukraine could be a smoldering wreck by the time the first homemade Patriot rolls off the production line. Vladimir Putin’s defense industry is producing more ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones which fly too quickly and too accurately for Ukraine’s air defenses to reliably shoot down.
By one Ukrainian count, Moscow fired 587 ballistic missiles in the first seven months of this year—already more than the 511 it fired throughout the whole of 2025. On September 27, seventy-six of 170 Russian drones that soared over Ukrainian skies were jet-powered; yesterday it was almost half—79 of 165. Zelensky himself revealed on Saturday that the intercept success rate of jet-powered drones by his air defenses is 55 percent.
Based on those figures, a quick bit of napkin math would suggest something like 70 UAVs slipped through Ukrainian defenses in the space of just two nights. Faced with this bleak reality, Ukraine’s armed forces realize they can’t afford to place their trust in Trump. Over the weekend, the General Staff declared a new priority for its combat operations—destroy the missile and drone launch facilities before the projectiles can even get off the ground.
The presidents of America and Ukraine met on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on September 22. The list of topics up for discussion was no doubt long, but besides the headline feature—efforts to end Russia’s war—air defense was near the top. Kyiv’s official account of the head-of-state hobnobbing said both sides were working on a plan to manufacture Patriot interceptors in Ukraine.
Three days later, Zelensky told journalists that Trump had personally told him he’d made the "final decision" to grant Kyiv’s defense industry the licenses to proceed with domestic Patriot manufacturing. Getting the agreement in writing is Kyiv’s first of many challenges. Zelensky said last week that Ukraine had learned to shoot down cruise missiles and conventional drones.
Against ballistic missiles, however, Patriot interceptors remain, "for now, the only effective option." But the Patriot system is a highly complex and extremely costly bit of kit; a fire unit requires radar, command-and-control stations, launchers and all manner of support equipment before a single missile is loaded. Army’s 2024 contract for 870 PAC-3 MSE interceptors and associated hardware was worth $4.5 billion. Even the PAC-3 ACE—a new Patriot missile that manufacturer Lockheed Martin bills as a budget-friendly variant at less than half the price of a top-line MSE interceptor—is likely to come in at over $1 million per unit.
Extract — continue reading at the source.
