Donald Trump’s promise of a $5,000 “Trump dividend” for every US citizen if Republicans retain control of the US Congress in November’s midterm elections has sparked incredulity and accusations of bribery. Speaking to Politico, Chip Roy, the Republican US representative from Texas, sounded skeptical. In the moments after Trump made the announcement, Marc Goldwein of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget wrote on X that “this would cost about $1.2 TRILLION in just one year.
That’s more than ALL THREE ROUNDS of COVID relief checks, despite no recessions. The result would be a huge spike in the deficit, and almost certainly in the inflation rate.” The US has roughly 240 million adult citizens, suggesting the cost of $1.2tn. The federal government spent about $7tn in fiscal year 2025, with about $2tn taken on as debt.
Democratic political leaders reacted with blunt condemnation. Meanwhile, working families get nothing except sky-high receipts at the grocery store and the pump, unaffordable healthcare premiums, and wages that aren’t keeping up with inflation.” The Bipartisan Policy Center has been tracking tariff revenue since Trump began raising rates in 2025. As of 8 September, the US has collected about $210bn in tariff and excise tax revenue in 2026.
At a rate of $21bn per month, the US federal government would have to collect tariffs for nearly five years to cover a $5,000 payment, assuming every dollar of tariff revenue went to the payment, and discounting tariff payments refunded to retailers in legal challenges. Peter Schiff, chief economist for Euro Pacific Asset Management, said that Trump’s pledge had already begun rippling through financial markets. Instead, his reckless policies have produced massive deficits.
Trump needs to send Americans bills, not checks.” JD Vance appeared to walk back Trump’s pledge, suggesting that the benefit would be means-tested. But the US senator Bernie Moreno, an Ohio Republican, promised support for Trump’s idea.
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