President Donald Trump's sagging approval ratings are threatening Republicans' grip on Congress as the midterm campaign enters its final two-month sprint. With Labor Day marking the traditional start of the fall campaign, Republicans are fighting to protect narrow congressional majorities in an election likely to serve as a referendum on Trump's second term. The stakes are particularly high for a president who has dominated American politics for nearly a decade.
Many election analysts favor Democrats to capture the House. A victory would give the party control of congressional committees and subpoena power, opening the door to investigations of the Trump administration while making it significantly harder for the White House to advance its legislative agenda. Democratic leaders have already promised investigations into what they allege is corruption within the administration.
The Senate race is less certain. A Democratic takeover would give the party the power to block Trump's executive and judicial nominees, including any potential Supreme Court pick. For Republicans, Trump's unpopularity is emerging as a major obstacle.
Recent /Ipsos polling has shown Trump's approval rating near historic lows, with voters particularly unhappy about the economy and the war with Iran. His net disapproval is nearly twice what it was ahead of the 2018 midterms, when Democrats gained 40 House seats. Democratic voters are also showing greater enthusiasm than Republicans, a pattern reflected in recent special and primary elections.
Registered voters currently favor Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by five percentage points. History presents another challenge. The president's party has lost House seats in almost every midterm election since 1938.
"I think that there is just a general sense that the president is not focused on the number one issue with voters, which is affordability," said Jessica Taylor, a Senate analyst at the Cook Political Report. "If you want to voice your displeasure with the president, the only way you can do that during the midterm elections is by voting against his party." Democrats, however, face their own problems. Progressive and democratic socialist candidates have defeated establishment moderates in several important primaries, fueling questions over whether ideological divisions could complicate the party's broader midterm message.
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