Voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2024 are less enthusiastic about voting in November's midterm elections than those who supported Kamala Harris, recent polls suggest, adding to signs of a turnout challenge for Republicans as they try to hold onto control of Congress. In a /Ipsos poll conducted September 30 to October 5, 48 percent of Harris's 2024 voters said they were "very enthusiastic" about voting in November, compared with 30 percent of Trump voters. The poll surveyed 4,506 US adults online and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
A separate Economist/YouGov poll found a similar gap using a different question. Asked whether they were more or less enthusiastic about voting this year than in previous congressional election years, 52 percent of Harris's 2024 voters said they were more enthusiastic, compared with 34 percent of Trump's. The YouGov survey was conducted between October 2 and October 5 among 1,513 US adult citizens, including 1,381 registered voters or people who said they had planned to register.
The margin of error for registered voters was plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This distinction matters for the midterms, as an enthusiasm gap could affect which party's supporters show up, but it does not confirm how many voters will cast ballots. Meanwhile, a third CBS News/YouGov poll offered a broader look at the potential implications.
Its Battleground Tracker estimates Democrats currently have an advantage in the fight for a narrow House majority, citing opposition to the Trump administration's policies and a Republican base that is less likely to turn out. The survey was conducted from September 30 to October 2 among 2,166 US adults and had a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points for the full sample. The House estimate gives the enthusiasm findings added significance.
If Republicans have trouble mobilizing their base, that could make it harder to defend their seats. Cost of living is also a prominent concern across the polling. In the /Ipsos survey, 52 percent of respondents said a candidate's position on cost of living would be the most important factor in their congressional vote, including 53 percent of Republicans.
The CBS poll also found that many voters felt food and grocery prices were rising and that the administration had not focused enough on lowering costs. It reported that Republicans who thought the administration was not paying enough attention to prices were less likely to say they would definitely vote. For Republicans, the findings suggest a two-part challenge involving addressing an issue voters say matters to their decision and persuading less-motivated supporters that the election is worth turning out for.
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