LONDON — John Healey wants to keep his debut budget low-key — but he's also got to show the British public his boss really does feel their pain. The chancellor delivers the first financial statement of the Andy Burnham era Wednesday. "Breathing space for today" mixed with some "fresh hope for the future." But with war in Iran driving up costs worldwide, government borrowing at its highest level in a year, and businesses warning they're taxed to the max, Healey is up against it.
Here's how POLITICO's team of reporters will be poring over the big fiscal moment, unveiled at 12.30 p.m. I’ll flip straight to the big table two-thirds of the way through the 'red book,' where Treasury officials list the total tax rises and spending cuts, and then the “headroom” against Healey’s fiscal rules in the executive summary. The briefing suggests these numbers will be smaller than the £26 billion in tax rises and £23.6 billion in headroom former Chancellor Rachel Reeves notched up in March this year.
The Treasury has turned this into its comms strategy, pointing to “everyday fixes” and non-tax measures like scrapping business red tape. But these numbers will also show how Donald Trump’s war in Iran has reined in Burnham’s ambitions. And they are indicative of something else — the budget just isn’t the main event this time.
In the next seven weeks or so we’re expecting [former minister] Alan Milburn’s review of the benefit system, a U.K.-EU summit, a “10-year plan” and a white paper on “rewiring the state.” Then next year is the spending review. That’s when the really hard choices will come — and the budget will give us a sign of how hard, since it will map out a path for departmental spending over the next few years. Andy Burnham’s team has been speaking a lot about “everyday fixes” — cheapo policies that can rectify real-life niggles.
Being ripped off by parking fines? Balking at the cost of the supermarket shop? Gone are the tariffs on your gherkins.
That will buy the government a fair amount of goodwill, building a sense that the government isn’t entirely a useless beast being buffeted by global horror shows. But it’ll only go so far. Healey is under pressure to show bold action on what really matters too — actual interventions that bring down the cost of living.
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