The United States president’s much-discussed diesel deal with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, has become another source of tension between Washington and Ukraine and its European backers. The reported disruption of Starlink/Starshield services on October 13-14, which wrongfooted Ukraine’s military, has added to those tensions. Service was later restored, and reports that the restrictions were imposed at the White House’s behest to pressure Kyiv remained unconfirmed.
Nevertheless, the two episodes have reinforced the impression of a widening rift between Ukraine and the US. On Friday, Zelensky accused Washington of continuing to throttle Starlink and promising the Russians new concessions. Obviously, one needs to wait until the dust settles.
Trump has tilted towards Moscow before, notably at his August 2025 summit with Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, only to return to conditional support for Ukraine amid Russian intransigence and diplomatic efforts by Kyiv and European leaders. The arrangement under which Europe pays for US weapons delivered to Ukraine is working, and the US continues to share intelligence with Kyiv despite reports that some critical information has been withheld. The White House has also walked back proposals to recognise Crimea as de jure Russian, floated in its April 2025 peace framework, or to require Kyiv to withdraw from the entirety of its Donbas region.
For their part, Ukraine and Europe have continued to go along with Trump’s diplomatic overtures to Moscow, led by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The diesel deal itself may yet unravel, given bipartisan opposition in Congress, including from Republican senators. Washington’s latest shift towards Moscow may, therefore, prove less significant than it currently appears.
The above is no reason for complacency on the part of Ukraine and its principal backers in Europe. They have plenty of reasons to worry beyond Trump’s unpredictability. Chief among them is Putin’s resolve to ramp up the war.
Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure are coming under daily attacks from ballistic missiles and upgraded jet-propelled drones while its air defences are struggling. The country is bracing for yet another tough winter. A propaganda war is unfolding in parallel, fuelled by the diesel deal.
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