The United States is on the brink of ending one of the longest chapters of its military involvement in the wake of 9/11, with American troops set to leave Iraq by the end of September 30. Both Washington and Baghdad have recently agreed upon this date, marking the official end of the military mission of the US-led coalition in Iraq. However, the importance of this withdrawal goes beyond the departure of American troops.
Iraq itself has its own deadline coming on September 30 in the form of an attempt to bring armed militias into line with the state. While the US is withdrawing its troops, which have been shaping the security landscape of Iraq for almost twenty years, the Iraqi government is now being tasked with proving its ability to prevent the country from sliding back into the old pattern of militia politics, foreign interventions and sectarian insecurity. Speaking to AzerNEWS, Lebanon-based analyst Hazem Al-Tawil noted that the US withdrawal should not be interpreted as a simple reduction of Washington's involvement in the Middle East: "September 30 is being presented as the date on which the United States will finally leave Iraq.
That description is technically correct, but strategically incomplete. The more important story is what Washington and Baghdad are trying to build after the American military presence disappears. For the United States, the withdrawal marks the end of a model that has become increasingly expensive and politically hazardous, that is keeping American personnel inside a country where they can be attacked by forces aligned with Iran, while simultaneously insisting that those same forces are not the legitimate representatives of the Iraqi state.
For Iraq, however, the American departure creates a much more difficult problem. Baghdad is being asked to exercise sovereignty at precisely the moment when its ability to control all the armed actors operating on its territory is being tested. With that being said it is not simply an American withdrawal.
It is a test of whether Iraq can function without the security architecture that Washington built around it after the defeat of ISIS. The original logic of the American presence has already disappeared. ISIS no longer holds the territory it once controlled, while Iraqi security forces have spent years receiving American training, intelligence and equipment.
The coalition's military mission has therefore become increasingly difficult to justify as a permanent arrangement. The United States and Iraq had already agreed in 2024 to end the coalition's military mission and transition toward a bilateral security relationship. Even when the US forces entered Iraq for the first time, the main focus was not around the fact that, they want to control the region.
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