With two days to the United States midterm elections, Democratic and Republican leaders are making last-ditch efforts to woo voters, with the cost-of-living crisis, exacerbated by the US-Israel war on Iran, becoming one of the key talking points. According to the latest survey, Democrats are still ahead of the Republicans, but several closely fought Senate races may decide which party ends up in control of the US Congress. On Sunday, President Donald Trump will be campaigning in Iowa and Kansas, while Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate who has faced an increased wave of Islamophobic attacks, will be holding events in Michigan.
Democrats continue to lead Republicans by 51.5 percent to 43.1 percent, according to the latest RealClearPolling average. A national THP/MM survey conducted on October 28 and 29 put Democrats ahead by 54 percent to 41 percent, while an Emerson College poll conducted from October 24 to 26 showed a 10-point Democratic lead. Natalie Jackson, a political analyst and pollster, told Al Jazeera that the results reflected public dissatisfaction with Trump and the economy.
The president is very unpopular, Americans feel the pinch of high costs, which are partly due to tariffs and the war in Iran, and the general sentiment is that Republicans did not deliver in the last two years.” In Kansas, a Washington Post-Schar School poll released on Friday suggested Democrat Adam Hamilton was leading against Republican Senator Roger Marshall by 52 percent to 43 percent. But another Emerson College survey indicated a tighter race, with Hamilton ahead of Marshall by 50 percent to 47percent. Doug Heye, a Republican strategist and former communications director for the Republican National Committee, questioned the nine-point lead of the Washington Post-Schar School survey.
He was referring to a Des Moines Register poll published days before the 2024 presidential election that showed Kamala Harris leading Trump by three percentage points in Iowa. Trump went on to win the state by about 13 points, a difference of 16 points from the poll’s margin. Jackson, the political analyst, also said polling might not accurately reflect the result of individual Senate contests.
That might indicate that polls are underestimating Republicans, but we don’t know until the votes are counted.” As the election nears, both parties are focusing their final campaign messages on the economy and the cost of living. While Democrats have been focusing on affordability issues, Trump has been conducting telephone rallies for Republican candidates in closely contested races. Heye said Republicans were struggling to convince voters that their economic policies would improve the situation in the country.
Asked whether Republicans had found a convincing closing message, he said: “No, they haven’t. That’s a big part of their challenge.” The Republican strategist said candidates should focus on issues voters were raising, particularly the cost of energy, healthcare, groceries and other everyday expenses. Celinda Lake, a Democratic strategist and pollster working with El-Sayed’s campaign in Michigan, said Democrats were also facing questions about what they would deliver if they controlled Congress.
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