With five days to go before the United States midterms, Democrats are ahead in national polls, but several Senate races remain close. President Donald Trump, former President Barack Obama and Vice President JD Vance were out campaigning on Wednesday in Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina, as both parties fight for control of Congress. Democrats lead Republicans by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent, a gap of 8.2 percentage points, according to RealClearPolling’s national polling average.
But the national lead is not reflected in every Senate race. In Texas, where Democrats haven’t won a Senate election since 1988, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton with 48.5 percent to 46.7 percent, according to the poll aggregator. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has widened his lead over Republican Mike Rogers to seven percentage points, according to a Mitchell Research poll conducted for CBS Detroit.
The October 26-27 survey found El-Sayed leading Rogers 51 percent to 44 percent, up from a 4.2-point advantage earlier this month. RealClearPolling showed a narrower race, with El-Sayed at 48 percent and Rogers at 46 percent. Despite that lead, Democrats are continuing to campaign for support among young voters in Michigan.
Democratic Congressman Maxwell Frost, who travelled from Florida to campaign for El-Sayed, said face-to-face conversations with voters were particularly important. Republicans are also trying to reach young voters, with one supporter telling Al Jazeera: “I think there’s definitely a movement that people don’t realise in Gen Z that is turning more conservative.” Beyond Michigan, some voters told Al Jazeera they were frustrated with both parties. Democratic strategist Joel Rubin described the midterms as a potential “protest election”, with many Democratic voters looking to limit Trump’s power.
Republican strategist Suhail Khan said Trump was losing support among a number of his own voters, who were frustrated by rising fuel prices, rents and mortgage costs. Democrats are hoping to overturn Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress, but the Senate presents a bigger challenge. They need a net gain of three seats in the House of Representatives and four in the Senate, where Republicans currently hold 53 of the 100 seats.
Democrats hold 47, including two independents who caucus with them. Democrats need to reach 51 seats to take control, but the path to a Senate majority is not simple. Alaska and Texas could help close that gap.
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