As Americans head to the polls on Tuesday in the much-anticipated midterms, the record number of voters identifying as independent could prove decisive for control of the US Congress and state legislatures. Nearly half of US voters – as many as 117 million adults – now identify as politically independent, with the two major parties, Democrats and Republicans, jockeying for their votes. At the same time, independent or third-party candidates win few federal or state seats.
The Democratic and Republican parties have dominated US politics, from state legislatures to the US Congress and the presidency, for generations. Bennett’s candidacy runs headlong into one of the most stubborn contradictions in US politics: While millions of eligible voters reject Republican and Democratic labels, far fewer will cast their ballots for independent candidates. This is in contrast to 29 percent who identify as Democrat and 28 percent as Republican.
But there is a caveat: Most self-described independents still gravitate towards one of the major parties. Independents who express absolutely no partisan leaning make up only about 7-10 percent of the total electorate. These “true” independents are sought after by candidates because they are persuadable, the core of the coveted so-called swing vote in a deeply divided and partisan electorate and political system.
In the 2026 midterm elections, 52 percent of likely independent voters are supporting Democrats, while 39 percent back Republicans, polling firm Marist suggests. Frustration with President Donald Trump is permeating the midterm electoral landscape, with independent respondents more than three times as likely to say their vote is mainly against the president, and 28 percent saying they are voting for “change”. The US does not legally restrict elections to two parties, and many local officials are not party-affiliated.
But for more powerful federal and statewide seats like Tuesday’s House of Representatives and Senate races, the winner-take-all electoral system and single-member congressional districts work against outsiders and can discourage voters from backing them. Even substantial support for a minor party is rarely concentrated enough in one district to win a congressional seat. Voters, too, can unknowingly reinforce the system.
Polling trends and data further suggest that voters who identify as or prefer an independent will often instead back a Republican or Democrat they see as more politically viable. Voters are also reluctant to support “spoilers”, who may peel away votes from one of the two major-party candidates. Bernard Tamas, a political scientist at Valdosta State University who studies third parties, said that although laws are often blamed for keeping third-party candidates off the ballot, “there is very little evidence that legal barriers are undermining these candidates”.
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