US winter is likely to be wetter and warmer, forecasters say, with more snow in the south

Winter in the United States looks like it will generally be wetter and warmer, but not necessarily snowier, according to the federal government’s seasonal outlook and other meteorologists’ forecasts. You can thank or blame El Niño. El Niño is likely to shift weather patterns to bring more moisture, but with it higher temperatures.

That should help erase persistent western drought, but it is unlikely to make northern snow-lovers happy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said on Thursday. El Niño, the natural but temporary warming in parts of the Pacific, generally heats the globe. Although it disrupts weather conditions around the world in dramatically different ways, its effects tend to follow predictable regional patterns, especially when El Niño is strong like it is right now.

That gives forecasters greater confidence in what lies ahead. All this is on top of a US winter that has warmed about 4F (2.2C) over the past 50 years, predominantly from the human-caused climate crisis, according to Noaa. While the weather service doesn’t make seasonal snowfall predictions, its meteorologists said much of the northern parts of the country – including the north-east, the Great Lakes, the upper midwest and the northern Rockies – should expect below-normal snowfall.

The southern Rockies, parts of the south-east and the south-west may get more than they usually do. It doesn’t mean you might not have a snowstorm,” the National Weather Service’s director, Ken Graham, said in a media briefing presenting the three-month winter outlook. Salt Lake City is the only big metro area where AccuWeather expects above-normal winter snow amounts.

Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia are forecast to get about half or less of their normal winter snow amounts, the firm said. Consider a plane ride to the southern Rockies, Belanger said. Otherwise, “Santa’s gonna find a barren landscape when he returns in late December”.

Some or all of 41 of the lower 48 states are forecast to be warmer than normal. No states – or even parts of states – are forecast to be cooler than average. Florida, Louisiana, southern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi are forecast to be near normal.