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Uzbekistan’s investment boom: Can capital deliver sustainable growth?

Uzbekistan’s investment boom: Can capital deliver sustainable growth?

trend.az 25.08.2026 07:00 8 views

Uzbekistan is accelerating its investment drive as the government seeks to expand industrial capacity, attract foreign capital and deepen the role of private investment in the economy. With 338.9 trillion soums ($28.6 billion) invested in fixed capital in the first half of 2026, a 17.5% year-on-year increase, and $32.9 billion in foreign investments and loans utilized in the period from January through July, the scale of capital formation is becoming a defining feature of the country's growth model. The government is now moving beyond simply attracting investment.

It is attempting to build the financial, industrial and human-capital infrastructure needed to turn inflows of capital into higher productivity, stronger exports and sustainable economic growth. This shift is increasingly visible in the composition of investment. Manufacturing, construction and energy-related activities accounted for nearly half of fixed-capital investment in the first half of the year, while the government is simultaneously preparing new industrial and infrastructure projects worth billions of dollars and expanding companies' access to international capital markets.

However, the key question is whether Uzbekistan will be able to turn this investment boom into long-term productive capacity, rather than simply an increase in capital inflows. Investment becomes a central pillar of growth Uzbekistan's investment expansion is taking place against a backdrop of sustained economic growth. Speaking at the Silk Road Finance & Technology Forum, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Jamshid Kuchkarov said average annual GDP growth had remained around 6–7%, while the economy had tripled in nominal terms from approximately $60 billion to $180 billion.

The country's economic expansion has been accompanied by improving macroeconomic indicators. Kuchkarov said inflation, which had previously remained in double digits, is expected to reach around 6.5% this year, with the government targeting the 5% level next year. External public debt has remained around 27% of GDP, while budget deficits have stayed below 3% of GDP in recent years.

This combination of relatively rapid growth and improving macroeconomic stability is important for investors. A predictable macroeconomic environment reduces some of the risks associated with long-term projects, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing, where investment returns often depend on conditions over many years. At the same time, Uzbekistan is seeking to improve its sovereign credit standing, complete accession to the World Trade Organization, and further reduce the state's role in the economy.

These reforms suggest that the government sees foreign investment not as a temporary source of financing, but as part of a broader transition toward a more market-oriented economic model. Manufacturing is at the heart of the investment drive The distribution of fixed-capital investment in the first half of 2026 provides an important indication of where Uzbekistan's growth strategy is heading. Manufacturing attracted 100.5 trillion soums ($8.5 billion), making it by far the largest recipient and accounting for almost 30% of total fixed-capital investment.

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