One figure sets Venezuela apart from the rest of the world: 303 billion barrels of so-called proven oil reserves A single figure sets Venezuela apart from the rest of the world: 303 billion barrels of so-called proven oil reserves. But experts say the country's estimate is inherently problematic and far from proven — rooted in exaggerated, aging data from a corrupt government. The number has long been touted by politicians and investors as an important measure of untapped energy potential, most recently by President Donald Trump's administration in detailing a sweeping deal for the U.S. to take control of some Venezuelan reserves.
But a more realistic estimate of the country’s proven reserves — a gold standard metric, representing the amount of oil that can reasonably be extracted under current conditions — is about one-third of what it has reported, half a dozen experts told The . They put the likely figure at 60 to 120 billion barrels, a vast amount but not enough for Venezuela to remain the world’s largest holder of reserves. The distinction is an important one as Venezuela and the U.S. attempt to attract new investment into the country’s dilapidated oil industry, and it suggests that the deal Trump announced in August claiming the U.S. would ultimately control more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s proven oil reserves is much less profitable than he asserted.
Trump has said that under the deal, the U.S. will control 65 billion barrels of proven reserves — a figure exceeding the entirety of U.S. crude reserves. He's repeatedly cited the 65 billion barrels number and called the oil deal the biggest in history, a way to refill U.S. strategic reserves and lower gas prices that surged during the Iran war. But experts say the U.S. is gaining access to a mix of sites that are nearly depleted or totally undeveloped, with an expected output a fraction of what Trump claimed.
Some of the oil fields are deep within the Orinoco Belt, a virtual wilderness in central-eastern Venezuela posing major technical challenges. It’s impossible,” Romero said, adding that some firms have abandoned these fields because of the difficulties. The White House hasn't publicly disclosed how it arrived at the 65 billion figure and didn't answer questions from AP.
A statement from White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers defended the deal and Trump's assertions. Luisa Palacios, a former Citgo chair, said she suspects the figure announced by the administration represents oil stored underground, not proven reserves. Under that scenario, she said, the proven reserves would probably be about 5% of 65 billion, or around 3.2 billion.
"That’s the thing that I cannot say. And so that’s why there are questions around it.” Francisco Monaldi, a Venezuelan oil expert at Rice University, estimated that 10 billion to 15 billion barrels would be classified as proven reserves in the short term — far short of Trump's estimate. The oil the U.S. would control, according to officials in both countries, is in 17 fields under the control of a joint venture between the U.S. and Venezuela-based North American Blue Energy Partners, or NABEP.
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