Sherrod Brown, the former Democratic U.S. senator seeking to reclaim an Ohio Senate seat, has gained in prediction markets since Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy took responsibility for a campaign advertisement targeting his Democrat opponent, former Ohio health director Dr. Amy Acton, through her long-estranged mother. The ad features Acton’s birth mother, Donna Arthur, calling her a liar and disputing her childhood story about spending time living in a tent, despite Acton saying she was removed from her mother’s custody after being sexually abused by her stepfather.
With Ohio voting on November 3, a controversy in the governor’s contest could shape the closely fought Senate race sharing the ballot. Republican Senator Jon Husted, who is defending his seat against Brown, faces pressure from Democrats demanding condemnation and national Republicans defending Ramaswamy. Since October 20, Brown has climbed by about 5 percentage points on U.S. regulated prediction market Kalshi and 8 points on Polymarket, where his implied chance of winning reached 72 percent.
Husted fell by approximately 6 points and 7 points, respectively, a Newsweek analysis found. The movement follows an October Marist Poll showing Brown leading Husted by 48 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. In the governor’s race, Acton led Ramaswamy by 50 percent to 43 percent.
Newsweek contacted all four gubernatorial and senatorial campaigns for comment via email on Thursday morning and is awaiting responses. Acton, who became a household name in Ohio during the Covid pandemic, was already polling ahead of Ramaswamy, who challenged Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, while Brown held a smaller advantage over Husted, who was appointed to the Senate seat vacated when J.D. Vance became vice president.
Any further movement among independents could therefore have an impact across both contests. Brown sought to connect his opponent directly to the dispute, writing in a Tuesday post on X: “The ad released by Vivek Ramaswamy is disgusting. Everyone, including Jon Husted, should be willing to condemn this ad.” Husted subsequently told the : “I would not have run that ad.” That response leaves the senator balancing competing forces within his party.
Vance criticized Republicans who focused on the commercial rather than defeating Democrats. Marist interviewed 1,176 registered Ohio voters from October 15 through October 18. Its likely-voter results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points; registered-voter findings carry a plus or minus 3.9-point margin.
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